Confirmation Bias, Bias Blind Spots and Intellectual Tide Pools
Continuing our overview of cognitive biases we have the well known confirmation bias. This is one that definitely is important to know as everyone suffers from this bias. It can, like other biases, lead to and reinforce other biases. Coupled with the fact that we are all, to some degree, ignorant of our own biases (Bias Blind Spot) this can create what I call stagnant, intellectual tide pools.
Confirmation bias is the bias we all have to seek information to confirm what we already believe. We gather and interpret information in a way that fits into what we already believe to be true. After all, what we believe is true, right? So any new information must fit into that even if it may not fit well, we’ll shoe horn it in (belief perseverance). The problem is your current beliefs may be wrong in part or in whole. So new information that at first seems to contradict what you believe to be true, may actually be good evidence against what you believe. We may avoid or not objectively analyze new information as a result of such cognitive biases (it can cause cognitive dissonance, which is unpleasant, so we avoid it).
Confirmation bias is a bias toward looking for confirming evidence for what we believe and discounting or avoiding potentially disconfirming evidence. It can help create echo chambers and us/them thinking and in/out-groups where we become insulated from different views and ideas. These cognitive biases can overlap each other, lead to others and tend to reinforce each other. Especially if we have a good dose of confirmation bias. This one, from my experience, is the gateway drug bias that can cause more problems. Add to that the fact that we are usually unaware of our biases and you have a recipe for major self-deception. Not being able to see these biases in ourselves has its own name of course, Bias Blind Spot. I call these cognitive biases which lead to other biases and that reinforce each other, intellectual eddies or intellectually isolated tide pools. They can lead to stagnation. When there’s an entire universe out there you are completely cut off from. Suit yourself!
So how does confirmation bias work? People already have preconceived assumptions at the start and to confirm these, what people tend to do is gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively and interpret these altogether in a biased way. These biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs.
Like all cognitive biases, it is basically impossible to completely eliminate confirmation bias from your life. Critical thinking skills are designed to objectively assess and analyze information and arguments, so are designed to avoid biases, if followed. These skills were developed before social psychology studied what they call cognitive biases. Knowledge of cognitive biases is helpful to keep in mind when assessing information and arguments that may confirm, challenge or even contradict our beliefs (critical thinking). Realize you have a bent towards interpreting evidence in a way that fits what you currently believe, so you may not even want to objectively interpret information as contradicting or refuting your beliefs, in part or in whole. That’s why critical thinking is necessary if your goal is the truth, not just confirming what you believe at the moment. As the saying goes, easier said than done.